In October 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology pointed out that humanoid robots are expected to become disruptive products after computers, smartphones, and new energy vehicles, and will profoundly change human production and lifestyle.
In December 2023, Tesla released the second-generation version of the humanoid robot Optimus Prime, Optimus-Gen 2, which weighs 10kg less than the first generation and walks 30% faster, mainly due to the use of lightweight materials and high-power density actuators.
On the last trading day of 2023, the humanoid robot stood on the IPO bell ringing stage and completed the bell ringing ceremony at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
The material requirements of robots are mainly reflected in light weight and durability.The second-generation robot solves the above problems by using PEEK and high-power density actuators. Recently, the market has paid close attention to PEEK materials, which has increased the popularity of non-metallic new materials in the new lightweight track. Whether humanoid robots can bring opportunities to the PEEK industry depends on two issues:1. Whether PEEK can be used; 2. How much PEEK to use.
0 What is PEEK?
PEEK is an aromatic semi-crystalline polymer. Its main molecular chain is composed of aromatic, ketone and ether bonds. It has a hard texture and a gray/brown base color. Its density can reach 1.32g/cm3 at maximum crystallinity.
PEEK has extremely strong heat resistance, chemical stability and thermoplastic molding processability.It is currently recognized as one of the polymer materials with the best performance.
PEEK was first invented by the British Imperial Chemical Industry (ICI) in 1977, and was first industrialized in 1978 and launched on the market in 1981.
PEEK was mainly used in the military industry in the early days, and its production capacity has always been at a relatively small scale of hundreds of tons, and the product is also in the stage of research and development.
In 1993, ICI's PEEK business was acquired by Victrex in the UK and began to operate independently. Its application in the civilian high-tech field has gradually expanded, and the market scale has also achieved rapid growth.
Back to the first question, can humanoid robots use PEEK?
1 Is PEEK the best choice for humanoid robots?
Tesla's second-generation robot not only reduced weight by 10kg, but also significantly improved its balance ability. The industry generally believes that plastics replacing high-density metals may make an indispensable contribution. In terms of industry dynamics information, Zhongyan Co., Ltd. stated on the investor Q&A platform,“PEEK materials are used in robot-related parts, and the company’s downstream customers currently have applications in robots.”
From the perspective of materials, whether humanoid robots use PEEK depends on material performance and cost.
POM, PA66, UHMWPE (ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene), and PEKK are several engineering plastics that have received much attention in the industry, and may be competing materials for PEEK.
However, nylon engineering plastics are prone to swelling and hydrolysis, and POM is also worried about hydrolysis. The melting points of POM and UHMWPE are too low, and the mechanical properties of several competing materials, except PEKK, are not as good as those of PEEK, and may not be suitable for the performance requirements of humanoid robots.
PEKK is closely following PEEK in all indicators, but its industrialization process is slow. PEKK was developed by DuPont in the United States in 1962, fifteen years earlier than PEEK. Later, the technology was transferred to Arkema for industrialization, but the industry scale was slowly increased and the application was not mature, resulting in high cost of use. China's Kaisheng New Materials is working on technical breakthroughs.
PEEK's many performance advantages can well meet the needs of humanoid robots, which can improve the robot's load and flexibility, making the robot "lighter", more agile, and as stable as a rock. Using PEEK material to reduce weight means that robots can do more and go further. Therefore,PEEK may become one of the core materials for humanoid robots in the future.
2 How much PEEK is needed for a humanoid robot?
PEEK can be used in gears, joints, limbs and other parts of humanoid robots due to its excellent performance.
There is no exact number for the amount of PEEK used in a humanoid robot. The average weight of robots such as Tesla, UBTECH, and Zhiyuan is 58Kg. Assuming that 1kg of pure PEEK material is used for gears and joints, and 8kg of CF/PEEK composite material (PEEK content is generally less than 30%) is used to reduce weight in limbs, the PEEK consumption of a single robot is 6.6kg.
Another estimation method is that if the volume of the robot body is calculated by the density of aluminum alloy, and then 25% of the volume is replaced by PEEK material, the PEEK material consumption of a single robot is about 6.9kg.
Based on the above assumptions, 1 million robots may bring a demand for 6,600-6,900 tons of PEEK materials.
Musk said that the final price of the Optimus humanoid robot may be less than $20,000, and mass production is expected within 3-5 years. If the PEEK usage is 6.6kg/unit and the price is 350,000/ton, the price of a single robot is 140,000 yuan, and the value of a single PEEK material is about 2,300 yuan, accounting for 1.65%. Of course, industrial opportunities are also closely related to the product competition pattern. Excessively scarce materials are not feasible for large-scale promotion. Bulk products without barriers and loose supply and demand are also difficult to make waves in the early stages of the development of the humanoid robot industry.
3 PEEK has high technical and customer barriers
PEEK is mainly made of 4,4′ difluorobenzophenone (DFBP) and hydroquinone, with diphenyl sulfone as solvent, and condensed under the catalysis of sodium carbonate. The unit consumption of the core raw material DFBP is about 0.8, and the unit consumption of hydroquinone is about 0.39. Diphenyl sulfone is recycled and reused with very little loss.
1. High technical barriers:The production process is difficult, requiring high consistency and crystallization performance, and achieving a suitable balance between melt index and viscosity; the barriers to mass manufacturing are extremely high, and only four companies in the world have mass production capabilities of more than 1,000 tons.
2. Long verification cycle:It will take about 7 years to ramp up production capacity, and the downstream customer certification development cycle will take 3-5 years.
4 Who makes PEEK?
From a global perspective, the PEEK industry chain already has a certain scale supply capacity. However, due to the high technical difficulty of high viscosity and batch stability in the later stage of PEEK polymerization, there are not many polymerization companies and the production capacity is relatively concentrated.
Foreign companies are mainly Victrex, Solvay and Evonik. China's PEEK technology originated from Jilin University. Companies include Zhongyan Co., Ltd., Jida Special Plastics, Pengfulong and Haoran Special Plastics.
A better supply structure of the industry chain and a certain scale supply capacity make PEEK materials possible and full of opportunities in the humanoid robot industry chain.
5 PEEK domestic substitution has obvious price advantages
Cost is one of the core factors in whether to use this material.
PEEK material cost structure = direct materials 75% + direct manufacturing costs 11% + direct labor 8% + energy and transportation costs 6%.
Raw materials account for 75% of the production cost of PEEK materials, mainly including fluoroketone, hydroquinone, diphenyl sulfone, sodium carbonate, etc. Fluoroketone is the core raw material of PEEK. It takes about 0.7-0.8 tons of fluoroketone monomer to produce 1 ton of PEEK material.
The domestic price of PEEK material is about 300,000-400,000 yuan/ton, and about 800,000-1 million yuan/ton abroad. Domestic products have obvious price advantages, and the trend of domestic substitution is clear.
Summarize
1. In the future, PEEK may become one of the core materials of humanoid robots;
2. Every 1 million robots may bring 6.6-6.9 thousand tons of PEEK demand;
3. PEEK synthesis technology is difficult, customer barriers are high, and production capacity is relatively concentrated;
4. Domestic PEEK has obvious price advantages, and the trend of import substitution is prominent.
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